This article was written by Tim Weiss, Co-Founder & CEO at Optera. It originally appeared on Tech Radar.
AI is guzzling energy. Scientists estimate North American data centers’ power requirements increased nearly 100% from 2022 to 2023, largely driven by generative AI (GenAI). By 2026, they anticipate data centers to become the fifth largest electricity consumers in the world, exceeding the usage of most countries.
However, speculation about AI’s detrimental effects on the environment might be overblown. For many corporations, particularly those that produce or sell physical goods, AI technology makes up only a small portion of their overall emissions. Oversimplifying AI as “carbon-intensive” diverts attention from its impactful sustainability opportunities. When used wisely, AI has the potential to offset its own footprint and actively contribute to a greener future.
What is AI’s emissions trajectory?
AI’s carbon output is primarily measured through data center energy consumption. These algorithms, especially GenAI, require significant computational power for training and operation. As usage grows, so does the electricity drain.
These impacts are significant. However, the belief that AI will remain an exponential data hog ignores the rapid pace of innovation in model design, hardware, deployment and the transition to renewable energy.
Today’s algorithms are likely the most inefficient they will ever be. Techniques like model distillation are becoming more prevalent, creating smaller, more energy-conscious models, and manufacturers are designing more energy-efficient AI chips.
Additionally, the energy grid is getting greener, translating to fewer emissions from data centers. Consider these factors: According to the World Resources Institute, renewables outpaced other energy generation sources, accounting for 90% of the United States’ new installed capacity in 2024.
The International Renewable Energy Agency states that more than 80% of renewable capacity additions produce cheaper electricity than fossil fuel alternatives.
BloombergNEF reported that more than 40% of the world’s electricity came from zero-carbon sources in 2023. Major companies, including Google, Microsoft and Amazon, are investing in clean energy to power their growing data centers.
Experts predict that economics alone could drive renewables to account for 50% of electricity by the end of the decade. Meaningful government policies could accelerate that transition. This momentum makes me optimistic that we can mitigate the environmental impacts of AI use.
AI emissions also attract significant attention because they are easy to track. Unlike the complex, fragmented emissions from manufacturing and global supply chains, AI’s carbon footprint stems primarily from data centers, which are fixed physical locations with measurable electricity consumption. This creates clear accountability, as we can directly attribute these emissions to specific technology providers and data center operators.
AI’s traceability can skew public and corporate attention toward it over other potentially more significant sources of emissions that are harder to quantify. For many companies, addressing only AI emissions is a drop in the bucket. To make meaningful progress on climate goals, organizations must work to reduce carbon emissions across all business operations, including their value chain.
