As companies move closer to their 2030 climate commitments, sustainability work is shifting. Regulations continue to cause uncertainty, energy markets remain volatile, and many teams are still wrestling with imperfect data. Together, these dynamics will make 2026 a pivotal year for reassessing how climate work gets done.
In this blog, we outline three predictions for how sustainability programs are likely to evolve in 2026 and what leading teams will do to navigate this landscape. These predictions reflect our insights from supporting sustainability programs across industries and from the conversations we regularly have with clients and partners.
Prediction 1: Companies will move from data perfection to decarbonization in an effort to meet 2030 targets
With 2030 targets approaching, many companies will begin confronting the gap between their commitments and their actual progress.
Many sustainability teams will realize that a large share of their time has gone into improving carbon accounting rather than advancing decarbonization itself. As deadlines tighten, leaders will feel increasing pressure to rebalance their effort and shift more attention toward actions that directly reduce emissions. As Ty Colman, Co-Founder and CRO at Optera, explains:
“2026 is the year companies must face the progress (or lack thereof) made on their 2030 climate goals. Many are still debating the quality of their data instead of acting on it. Perfect data will never exist; seeking that mythical perfect data will only slow progress.”
— Ty Colman
The companies that make the most headway in 2026 will be those that treat data as a tool for action, rather than an end in itself.
“The next phase of climate leadership will be defined by companies that utilize the information they have to take meaningful action towards decarbonization, while continually refining their data as they go.”
— Ty Colman
These teams will redirect more of their effort toward supplier engagement, energy efficiency projects, and operational reductions, rather than getting stuck in cycles of data refinement.
Prediction 2: Corporate climate action will strengthen even as some regulations weaken
Heading into 2026, some teams believe that as U.S. reporting requirements are delayed, companies will be able to deprioritize climate work.
That assumption makes sense on the surface, especially after several years of regulatory whiplash. But climate strategy inside large organizations has never been driven by federal policy alone. As Derek Kuhl, VP of Sales at Optera, explains:
“A major misconception heading into 2026 is that weakening federal regulations means less corporate climate action. What we’re seeing is the opposite: Climate risk is undeniably real, energy costs are out of control, and state-level regulations are filling gaps in federal policy. Companies and boardrooms now view decarbonization as good business rather than an overhead compliance requirement.”
— Derek Kuhl
What this means for 2026 is simple: corporate climate action will continue to strengthen, but for reasons tied to operations and risk management rather than compliance alone. Companies will expand climate work to manage exposure to volatile energy markets, prepare for state and local requirements, and address board-level concerns about resilience and competitiveness.
Rather than slowing down, the gap between proactive companies and those waiting for clearer regulatory direction is likely to grow wider.
Prediction 3: Sustainability teams will favor smart bets over bold promises
Uncertainty will define much of the climate landscape in 2026. Tariff volatility, shifting supply chains, unpredictable energy markets, and evolving regulations will all influence what companies can realistically commit to.
In this environment, sustainability leaders will focus on projects that advance decarbonization while providing measurable value to the business. As Tim Weiss, Co-Founder and CEO at Optera, explains:
“In 2026, successful sustainability teams will be making smart investments that build long-term credibility and advantages in the energy transition. Thriving will require teams to tie their work to tangible business outcomes and build strong fundamentals rather than pushing for bold, risky bets. If leadership’s hair is on fire about tariffs, don’t go to them demanding bold new initiatives — be realistic and fit within the business’s actual needs.”
— Tim Weiss
Sustainability teams that stay grounded in business needs will be better positioned to maintain leadership support and steady progress, even as external conditions shift.
In 2026, we expect more organizations to prioritize credible, incremental investments that reduce emissions while delivering clear business value. Teams that focus on durable, fundamentals-driven work will gain traction, while those built around sweeping, high-risk initiatives may struggle to secure resources or momentum.
Conclusion
As companies move closer to 2030, sustainability work will shift from ambition to accountability. The pressures shaping corporate climate action are becoming more immediate and more material, and 2026 will mark a year where durable, grounded progress matters more than bold statements.
Next year will not be defined by bold promises, but by practical choices that move companies steadily toward their climate goals. To move toward this future, companies will need to anchor their sustainability decisions in both climate impact and business value, making steady, credible progress instead of chasing perfect data or high-risk pledges.
